Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies and India needs to be wary of "imported inflation", especially due to high oil prices, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 released on Monday. "Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. "India's Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 5.6 per cent YoY in December 2021 which is within the targeted tolerance band," the survey report presented in the Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted.
India is negotiating a term contract with the new administration in Baghdad to import Iraqi crude even as it hopes to keep the exploration acreage awarded to it by the Saddam Hussein regime.
Indian efforts to secure a share in Iraqi crude oil have been hit with Indian Oil Corporation failing to get entry visas in time for sending its officials to Baghdad to seal an import deal.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Rising production from OPEC as well as the US also weighing on prices
India has asked refiners that owe about $6.5 billion to Iran for oil imports to build up dollar and euro balances to avoid downward pressure on the rupee if six world powers and Tehran reach a final nuclear deal.
Cooking gas or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) price has been raised by Rs 50 per cylinder by distribution companies, Union Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries were the major gainers. However, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Bharat Electronics and ITC were among the laggards.
Modi made a strong case for a partnership between the producers and consumers in the oil market as it exists in other markets.
The Indian industry is paranoid about the USA's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs and wants early conclusion of a bilateral trade agreement, sources said on Wednesday. They said that the talks for the proposed bilateral trade agreement are going well.
Senior officials of India and the US will begin three-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement in New Delhi on Wednesday amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from the Trump-administration, an official said. To formally start the negotiations on the pact, Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, along with a team of officials, is in New Delhi.
Who else will take on the might of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon if not the Adanis, Ambanis, Birlas, or Tatas?, asks R Jagannathan.
India's share from oil fields abroad where it has taken equity stake, will spiral more than three-folds to 13 million tonnes of crude by 2007, Petroleum Minister Ram Naik said on Thursday.
Quarterly earnings from IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide the movement in the equity market this week, analysts said. Movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee will also influence trading in the markets. "All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the second quarter of the current fiscal year. TCS is slated to unveil its Q2 results on October 11, with HCL Technologies and Infosys following suit on October 12.
Strong month-end demand for the US currency mainly from oil importers along with currency futures expiry related purchases predominantly weighed heavily on the forex market and haunted investor sentiment.
Making sense of the international crude market is incredibly hard.
India owes Iran around $8.8 billion primarily on account of crude oil imports.
With volatile international oil prices costing the country $43 billion in import bill, energy-hungry India has called for forging enduring partnerships between oil producing and consuming countries to contain the effect of surging oil prices.
Among Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Eternal, Axis Bank, Maruti, Tata Steel, HDFC Bank and Asian Paints were the gainers. However, Adani Ports, Trent, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever and NTPC were among the laggards.
Prices of petrol were reduced 32 times and increased 21 times while diesel prices were slashed 19 times and raised 28 times since 2013.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Bimal Jalan said on Friday that current crude oil price levels were not a cause for worry.
Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
"The increase in edible oil import is mainly due to significant growth in import of crude palm oil and its fractions, which has gone up by 11 per cent," an official statement said in New Delhi on Tuesday. Imports of fruits and vegetables (including nuts), foodgrain, cotton and silk, automobiles, rubber, alcoholic beverages and tea and coffee have also shown increase during the period under review.
Imports increased by 4.5 per cent, the highest growth in the last six months as crude oil and gold shipments shot up in the month.
With palm oil having 55 per cent share in total edible oil imports, the National Mission on Edible Oil-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP) would ensure that farmers get all facilities, from quality seeds to technology to promote cultivation of palm and other oil seeds, he said. Modi made this announcement after virtually releasing the ninth installment of Rs 19,500 crore to 9.75 crore beneficiary farmers under the government's flagship scheme PM-KISAN.
Traditionally, Singapore and the UAE have been India's biggest sources of petrol and diesel.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Jaishankar said he was confident that Prime Minister Modi and President Putin will meet for an annual summit next year.
American refiners closed some of their production, leading to futures trade benchmarked to the West Texas Intermediate going negative.
Krishna emphasised that India takes decision taking into consideration its domestic energy requirements.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
Petrol and diesel prices were hiked by 80 paise a litre each on Saturday, the fourth increase in five days as oil firms passed on to consumers the spike in cost of raw material. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 98.61 per litre as against Rs 97.81 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 89.07 per litre to Rs 89.87, according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. All the four increases since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22, have been of 80 paise a litre.
Here is a list of Q & As to explain these issues and implications of the US move.
The Multi Commodity Exchange on Wednesday launched India's first ever crude oil futures contract.
Stock markets would take cues from the biggest event of the week -- the US Fed interest rate decision, besides tracking the trends in global markets and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Last week, a heavy decline in smallcap, midcap firms, foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices in the international market dented investors' sentiments. Experts said equity markets may remain volatile in the near-term amid a host of global central bank's monetary policy decisions lined up during the week.
